For the people these events were discomforting proofs of intelligence failure and gross professional incompetence. But what the political elements recognised here was an opportunity to forever put the khakis back in their barracks.
Has this public criticism of the defence establishment, which has undoubtedly put it on the back foot, moved the country away from the spectre of another military-political clash, or will the force of circumstances eventually force even a hitherto reluctant army chief like Ashfaq Pervez Kayani to utter the infamous words, “…mairay hamwatno…”?
The army is under fire from all quarters. There are no two opinions about an internal rage of its own. The top brass found itself squirming at the intensity and boldness of questions raised, both by foot soldiers and officers alike, during the darbars held in the wake of OBL’s Abbottabad operation. Not so muffled opinions are being expressed about the “inexplicable tolerance” of their chief, enjoying an unprecedented three-year term extension. For their part, the corps commanders only recently publicly came out with a note complaining of “conceptual biases” against the armed forces, amongst other laments. The permanent source of succour in the past, the US military establishment, is now one of the greatest sources of irritation and posing a threat to the very existence of the defence establishment, both in terms of its structure and its operational methodologies and preferences.
The political parties want to use the current situation to constrain the armed forces forever. The media wants guaranteed security and a military-exclusionary democratic dispensation. The common man, for his part, just wants a safe and prosperous existence and doesn’t care two hoots about the form of the solution to all problems. Is the situation leading us away from a military intervention or towards it?
The popular perception holds that right now the armed forces are too deep in the hole to even think about any desperate action. The series of humiliating professional lapses have devastated their public image. Their civilian supreme commander, no matter how controversial, is one tricky variable and not someone to be taken or dealt with lightly. The US is no longer the good old buddy and wants the defence establishment to change according to Washington’s wishes. The US-led world opinion hardly appears in the mood to brook any adventurism because foreign leaderships have a lot at stake directly in this theatre, both in terms of financial and energy interests, but also taxing political consequences in their own electorates. The economy is in a shambles and with the current economic czars there is no danger of it improving in the short term. Once again: is the military possibility now an impossibility?
Contrary to the prevailing perception, we were never closer to a forced round of a khaki-inspired solution to the myriad problems being faced by the country.
The khaki and civilian minds think differently. What were unforgettable incidents for us civilians are mere tactical failures at the end of the day for the army, which need to be assessed and factored for in the future. For the strategist, these are transitory in nature regardless of their immense short-term fallout. Official statements coming out of corps commanders’ meetings reflect the growing sense of the us-them syndrome. Background interviews with the top brass reveal a sense of “hurt” at being “…viciously attacked by the politicians and the media at a time when thousands of us are laying down our lives. Do you know that since OBL, 28 young officers have already been martyred in anti-militant operations? You guys have treated us worse than the Americans,” as one highly emotional top general put it.
The army chief will either have to do something historic to justify his historic extension in office or be relegated to a position of shame amongst his peers. The armed forces have been hit as an institution and desperately need the revival of their image, and will definitely want to retake their traditional position in the power equation. The situation is fast evolving. The executive is already flaunting the orders of the Supreme Court and will definitely not obey any major orders on matters of significance, such as the NRO. Judicial mayhem is on the cards. Nobody has the numbers to democratically vote out the extremely corrupt and overbearing federal government or for that matter those ruling the roost in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. So how do you stop the pillage of national wealth? The economy is in its death throes and the present ruling dispensation does not have the ability to change its course. We are looking at disastrous inflation and unemployment down the road. Political forces are fighting it out for power and not for the people (the surprising MQM split is hardly surprisingly for the power corridors).
Unlike OBL and Mehran, it is these long-term problems that will ultimately decide the future course of events. All one has to do is to weather out the ongoing blizzard and wait for the people to start clamouring for the knight in shining armour. As for the world opinion, if the US-led world had its way then the defence establishment would soon find itself redesigned on the lines of the Japan national defence force and it is under no illusion either that the civilian equation will come to its rescue on this count. For the khakis it’s a choice of damned if we do, and dissolved if we don’t. So what would you do if you were the army?
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